Sorry that it has taken so long to write in the blog. Still trying to recover from the Vegas trip and all. Back to weather and chasing, plans of now are going to chase on Wed, and possibly again on Thursday. I feel that the dryline will remain over the central panhandles on wed. Appears that the best instability will remain to the north of us, up in Kansas, But, gut instinct is telling me to stay around the Vici to Shattuck area. I'm going to say the same about Thursday. Dryline should retreat pretty far west wed. night, before marching east again on Thursday. So, same target, 2 days in a role, LOL. Best of luck to all chasers

Well, I'm really glad that i chose not to chase over the last few days. SPC really over estimated the tornado threat over TX and OK. There were a lot more wind reports than I predicted. One thing is for sure though, the cirrus deck killed the tornado potential. By electing not to chase, this gives me more money for my huge road trip to Vegas. Looking over the GFS, looks like I planned my trip for the perfect time. There appears to be a break from the action at least for another week or maybe more. I'm still waiting for that Northwest Oklahoma season opener. My current prediction is that the storm system scheduled for March 18-19, might be the beginning. My first chase last year was March 21. Well, back to class I go and pack afterwards.

My hopes for chasing close to home is getting better and better every hour. My original thinking was that the so-called dryline was going to set up in far western oklahoma and my original target was Enid. Looking at latest obs, dryline appears to be evolving in the central Texas Panhandle. Dews in here in Booker have climed by 4 degrees in the last hour and southeast winds are increasing. Dryline is clearly seen on surface observations, Clayton, NM has a dew point of 8, while Canadian, TX has a dew point of 41. Pretty good difference within an 80 mile stretch. My forecasted target as of now is going to be Shattuck, OK. I feel the dryline will swing east pretty fast on Tuesday. With dew points around 60 and temperatures in the mid-upper 70s, Cape values appear to be around 1500 j/kg. I will just have to see the latest runs to determine for sure.

Well, 2 nights ago I was chatting with TONY LAUBACK about chasing today. For some unknown reason, the NAM was breaking out storms in Western Kansas today. It was the only model to do this and it came out of nowhere. We joked around about how the NAM was smoking a crack pipe. LOL. Long behold, woke up this morning and there it was, Western Kansas in a Slight Risk with a 2% tornado.

My plans right now appear to be iffy. Clouds are not eroding as fast as I was hoping and dew points are really not that high. But, over the past 30 minutes, clouds have eroded away rapidly around the Dalhart, and Boise City area. If dewpoints can get a little higher than they are, I plan on heading west toward Dalhart and hope to fin an Isolated Supercell. I will have another entry before I leave.

Well, things keep getting more interesting for the up coming storm system. All models are in some what of an angreement on this system. Models develop a warm front and retreat it back to the north and then develop the dryline. Dew points are expected to be in the mid 60s the farther east you go. My current target area will be woodward or enid.

Also, plan on adding a few pictures to the site and update forcasting links.

Finally some good news. Last few days, the GFS has been hinting on a possible severe weather event on March 3rd and again on March 5th. My one concern is going to be the temperatures on these days. At the present times. it appears that the temperatures will remain around the 60 degree mark. At the same time, there will be a WARM FRONT in the area. If this pans out, and the warm front stalls around the Texas Panhandle area, then it might be possible to to find a few isolated tornadoes, expecially around the triple point. It does appear that there will be a so called warm up day on March 3rd and then when the wave comes out on the 5th, things look to be intesting. Looks like I will start to dig out all my equipment and get ready for some fun.

Looking over the 00Z GFS, my freezing rain and drizzle are still on schedule for Friday and Saturday. Personal opinion is that the ice/drizzle will start late Thursday night and last all the way to Sunday. After Sunday, things start to get interesting again as another short-wave drops down the west coast and another cold front stalls arcross the area.. Snow? Still a little too far out. We really need it across the south plains.